Unprecedented For Second Hurricane Of Season To Reach Cat 5, Says RMS

Newark, Calif – September 3, 2007 – Hurricane Felix, which is expected to make landfall in Belize on Wednesday, has reached Category five status, following a southerly path parallel to Hurricane Dean which hit Jamaica and Mexico two weeks ago. This is an unprecedented season in which the first two hurricanes both reached maximum intensity, according to Risk Management Solutions (RMS), the world’s leading provider of products and services for catastrophe risk management.

The similar paths taken by the two hurricanes is a result of a persistent high pressure weather system which is usually located further northeast in the Atlantic around Bermuda. The high is currently positioned over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, directing the tracks to the western Caribbean where Atlantic sea surface temperatures are hottest. The warmth of this water intensifies any storms that pass over the area.

“This is only the fourth year since 1950 that we’ve had more than one Category five storm and it is unprecedented for the first two hurricanes of the season to reach this level of intensity,” said Dr Claire Souch, senior director of model management at RMS. “The northern hemisphere weather systems have remained very stable for some weeks and this has led to yet another year of storm tracks clustering. During the 2006 hurricane season, high pressure over the Azores caused storms to recurve without hitting land, while in the highly active 2004 and 2005 seasons the Bermuda High guided hurricanes to hit Florida and the US Gulf Coast through August and September.”

Robert Muir Wood, chief research officer at RMS, commented: “The location of the high pressure system is currently protecting the US, as storm tracks are being kept further south. However, we are not yet halfway through the hurricane season and stable weather tends to break down during September, so there is no guarantee that the protection will remain in place.”

He added: “While two maximum-strength hurricanes could be cited as evidence of climate change, both the tracks of these storms have been guided over a region known to be a great hurricane intensifier. Belize, which was hit by Category 4 hurricanes Keith and Iris in 2000 and 2001, is in the firing line of these intense storms.”

Hurricane Felix is a relatively small, fast-moving storm. The high forward speed means that it will not bring the exceptional rainfall that accompanied Hurricane Mitch in 1998, a large slow-moving Category five storm that resulted in extreme flooding to Honduras and caused almost 20,000 deaths.

RMS will continue to monitor the situation and issue an insured loss estimate for Hurricane Felix as the storm continues along its track.