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Probabilistic Terrorism Model
The RMS® U.S. Probabilistic Terrorism Model provides a comprehensive
look at terrorism risk in the U.S., quantifying risk from both foreign
and domestic terrorist organizations. The application supports
multi-line risk analysis for both certified and non-certified events
that impact property, business interruption, and workers comp
exposures. The application can also assist with risk analysis for the life,
personal accident, and accidental death and dismemberment lines of
business.
The Probabilistic Terrorism Model employs state-of-the-art methods for quantifying the impacts
from a
range of potential terrorist attacks, from conventional weapons to
chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons. These
attack modes are modeled across the U.S. at potential terrorist targets.
Attack frequency includes consideration of the potential for synchronized
multiple attacks, a signature of Al Qaeda and its affiliates around the
globe.
Model Highlights
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Geographic scope: Continental U.S. and Hawaii |
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Lines of business: Property (building, contents, business
interruption) and workers comp; output can be applied to life, health,
personal accident, accidental death and dismemberment, and loss
quantification |
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Comprehensive coverage of both foreign and domestic terrorist groups |
Exposure Data Resolution
Analyses can be done at each of the following levels
of geographic resolution: Latitude/Longitude, Building, Street Address,
or ZIP Code Conventional Attack Modes Modeled
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Bomb (600 lb, 1 ton, 2 ton, 5 ton, 10 ton): The selected scenarios
each consist of a bomb made from conventional Ammonium Nitrate
Fuel-Oil (ANFO) explosives, delivered using a truck or other
vehicle, and detonated as close to the target as possible |
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Aircraft Impact: 747 commercial/cargo airliner hijacked and flown
into a target with full fuel load |
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Conflagration: 9000-gallon gasoline tanker hijacked, driven into the
service bay of a major commercial building, and set on fire |
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Sabotage – Industrial Plant: Sabotage attack on a chemical facility
sufficient to cause an explosion and/or toxic cloud release (3
magnitudes, 8 wind directions) |
CBRN Attack Modes Modeled
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Chemical – Sarin Gas: Sarin gas released into the ventilation system
of a target building, including high-rise commercial buildings,
airports, and metro systems; and sarin gas released into
a populated business or shopping district (3 magnitudes, 8 wind
directions) |
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Chemical – Hazmat Transportation: Sabotage of a train carrying
chlorine gas. 90 tons of gas released into the air around locations
where hazmat rail lines cross commuter rail lines with the ability
to cause damage in a major city (1 magnitude, 8 wind directions) |
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Biological – Anthrax Attack: Weaponized anthrax released into the
ventilation system of a target building, including high-rise
commercial buildings, airports, and metro systems; and
anthrax spores released into a populated business or shopping
district (3 magnitudes, 8 wind directions) |
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Biological – Smallpox Attack: Volunteers infect themselves with the
smallpox virus and infect people around them; and
smallpox virus is aerosolized and sprayed into the ventilation
system of a major office building or at an international airport |
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Radiological – Dirty Bomb: A dirty bomb detonated in a major city
center (2 magnitudes, 4 wind directions) |
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Nuclear Bomb: A nuclear device detonated in a major city center (2
magnitudes) |
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Sabotage – Nuclear Facility: Sabotage attack on a nuclear power
station or radioactive storage facility sufficient to cause a
release of radioactive steam (3 magnitudes, 8 wind directions) |
Probabilistic Event Set
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Approximately 64,500 events at 3,814 unique targets |
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AEP/OEP with secondary uncertainty considers both event frequency
and potential for simultaneous coordinated 'swarm' attacks |
Special Features
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Results provided for foreign certified, foreign non-certified, and domestic losses
individually and in total |
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Integrated functionality for application of TRIA coverage |
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Ability to combine terrorism AEP/OEP with RMS natural peril output |
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Ability to exclude attack types during run time (e.g. nuclear exclusion) |
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"Fire only" loss modeling for property exposure, as well as the
option to only include fire losses
for states in Standard Fire Policy jurisdictions |
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Risk Outlooks based on the latest terrorism risk intelligence |
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